SCSI members expect residential property prices to increase by an average of 1% in 2024
63% of agents believe prices are either at peak or close to it and will level off soon
Survey finds 36% of sales instructions in Q4 were landlords selling their investment property – down 4% on last year
76% of agents are reporting a shortage of supply – an increase of 10% on last year
Case studies show new homes are affordable for first time buyer couples on combined gross income of €89,000 in most parts of the country – but in Greater Dublin Area the unaffordability gap is €62,000 – In Galway its €22,000
The Northwest, Midlands and Southeast are the most affordable regions for first time buyers
Just over a decade after they were introduced, 69% of agents say BER ratings are now an important or very important factor in relation to the level of an offer
Upcoming change of Government / change of policy cited by some respondents as an issue in the elevated sales of buy to lets and a factor affecting future house prices
Tuesday 23rd January 2024: A new survey by the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland indicates residential property prices will continue to stabilise in the medium term with estate agents forecasting an increase of just 1% in 2024. Almost two out of three respondents (63%) believe property prices have either peaked and should start to decline or are close to peaking and will level off soon. The report found the main factors influencing expectations of house price movements are the supply of housing, interest rates and changes in the economy.
Case studies compiled as part of the survey – see below – show that while new 3 bed semi-detached homes are affordable for first time buyer couples with combined gross earnings of €89,000, they remain out of reach by tens of thousands of euro for first time buyers in the Greater Dublin Area. This means that in Dublin, Wicklow, Meath, and Kildare the affordability gap is about €62,000, in Galway its €22,000.
The case studies, which are based on a couple employed as public servants – a garda and a nurse with ten years’ experience – indicate that the Northwest, Midlands, and Southeast are the most affordable regions for first time buyers.
John O’Sullivan, Chair of the SCSI’s Practice and Policy Committee said that after several years – during and immediately post covid – where the market experienced double digit price increases, it looks now as if prices are set to consolidate for the medium term.
“SCSI agents believe we will see modest growth in values in what will most likely be another challenging year for the property market. Three out of four agents or 76% of respondents are reporting a lack of supply to meet demand, that’s up 10% on last year. So, while price inflation has been dampened following the dramatic rise in interest rates, they have also been underpinned by the lack of supply.”
“That said prices are levelling off below current inflation rates and this is a welcome development for potential buyers as their purchasing power will increase as affordability improves. While the current supply of new homes is undoubtedly insufficient, SCSI agents say initiatives aimed at increasing supply are kicking in and that the situation will improve in the coming years. While this is most welcome, the skills shortage in the construction sector remains a critical issue which needs to be addressed.”
“Interestingly after supply, interest rates and the state of the economy, the fourth factor which members say will influence price movements is a potential change in Government and or housing policy. We know there is going to be a new Government in the next 14 months or so and some members are clearly picking up on the need to build on progress to date and to avoid knee jerk policy shifts which could introduce uncertainty into the market.”
Rental Market
The SCSI’s Annual Residential Review and Outlook report – now in its 41st year – also found that one in three of properties coming on the market are buy-to-lets. On average 36% of residential sale instructions to agents in Q4 were landlords selling their investment property. While this is down 4% from last year, Mr O’Sullivan said it shows investors and landlords are continuing to exit the market in very significant numbers.
“While new taxation measures announced by the Government in Budget ’24 aimed at encouraging landlords and investors to remain in the market are only being implemented now, SCSI agents are saying the main reason rental units are continuing to come on the market in such numbers is that rent legislation is too complex and restrictive. The other reasons given are a potential change in Government / housing policy, net rental returns being too low, coming out of negative equity and pressure from lending institutions to liquidate assets.”
“We will have to wait and see what impact the new taxation measures will have but for now its clear landlords are continuing to exit the market in substantial numbers. And with mortgage approvals for residential investment lettings down 20% year on year, it’s clear those leaving are not being replaced in the same numbers by new investors. This in turn is going to affect the number and choice of rental units available on the market and contribute to higher rents.”
Sales not proceeding
There has been a steady increase in the proportion of SCSI agents reporting that sales are not proceeding. In the survey 27% of agents said there had been an increase in the numbers of sales not proceeding while 63% of agents reported that the level of sales not proceeding remained the same as the preceding six months, when the issue first came to prominence.
In its analysis the SCSI noted an increasing prevalence of members reporting significant frustration regarding delays within the probate process and in contacting the probate office. Agents highlighted challenges regarding an inefficient and lengthy conveyancing process and how this is impacting on sales as well as other issues such as planning irregularities, non-compliance with building regulations and boundary challenges.
Growing importance of BER Ratings
It is now just over a decade since Building Energy Ratings were first introduced and the SCSI thought it timely to ask about them and their impact on the sales process. Members believe there is a widening price gap between energy-efficient homes – rated B or higher – and their less efficient counterparts – rated C or lower. This is due to the time and costs required to pay for refurbishments to the latter, despite the availability of grants.
In the survey 69% of agents said they believed BER ratings are an important or very important influence on the level of offer made on a property.
Mr O’Sullivan said that while they started out initially as a mere footnote on property brochures, they were now front and centre in buyers’ thoughts.
“This is due to heightened environmental awareness, the recognition of the pressing need to tackle climate change, rising energy costs and the attractiveness of green mortgages with lower interest rates. Today energy-efficient homes are among the most coveted property types with some research putting their value circa 25% higher than non-efficient homes. It’s clear that trend is going to intensify.”
SCSI New Home Affordability Tracker
The average market value of a new three-bedroom semidetached home in the Greater Dublin Area (GDA) is €464,036 as reported in the SCSI Real Cost of New Housing Report 2023. Using figures from that report, these case studies examine affordability within the scenario of a couple who are first time buyers and employed as a garda and a nurse. The average combined gross incomes of two professions (with 10 years’ experience) in Ireland, is €89,000. Clearly there will be differences for buyers whose earnings fall below or exceed this level.
For these case studies their total LTI maximum loan limit is €356,000 (4 times gross salary). For those who earn less than this income level, the disparity between their borrowing capacity and the cost of purchasing a property will be even greater. As of December 2023, the GDA is the most unaffordable followed by Galway. The most affordable locations are the Northwest, Midlands and Southeast.
Mr O’Sullivan said that whilst a more stable market with values levelling off will assist those wishing to purchase a home, the increasing construction costs, and uncertainty of where such costs will be in the future poses questions for the future viability of new projects. “Right now, new housing is most viable in the Greater Dublin Area, and this is where its most unaffordable. In very many cases the areas where new home building is least viable are the more affordable areas, such as the Midlands and Northwest. To restore balance to the property market we need to ensure there is an adequate delivery of new housing through other avenues such as AHBs, via the Land Development Agency and through direct public housing delivery etc.”
Table 1. Affordability of purchasing a new three-bedroom semidetached home. Scenarios are based on combined gross wages of a garda / nurse couple with ten years’ experience or two civil servants at executive officer level with circa 9 years’ experience.
Note. Figures exclude First Homes Ireland Scheme. Help to Buy Scheme assumed to be included within the 10% deposit amount. Source SCSI The Real Cost of New Housing Delivery 2023*
The SCSI’s Annual Residential Property Review and Outlook Report 2024 is available at www.scsi.ie or on request.
*The SCSI Real Cost of New Housing Delivery 2023 report provides multiple recommendations to increase new supply and reduce the costs of delivery to improve affordability, such as: removal of development levy costs; setting clear targets for constructing new units via modern methods of construction; and, design flexibility: allowing local authorities to approve alterations to specifications of buildings that do not materially alter the planning permission but allow for the use of more cost-effective building materials.
About the Survey
The SCSI Annual Residential Property Review & Outlook 2024 is a sentiment report, which is informed by the professional opinion of over 140 SCSI agents across the country and bring together their insights and local knowledge on Ireland’s sales and rental market. The questionnaire was completed by SCSI members in December and January.
Our latest edition of the Surveyors Journal features the 2023 National Conference, the Surveying Excellence Award Winners, The Land Development Agency’s work to accelerate affordable housing delivery, the role AI is already playing in changing how surveyors work and more.
Featured in this edition:
President’s Message: Shaping our Industry
Editorial: Expert Services
SCSI National Conference 2023: Evolve, Shape, Lead
Surveying Excellence Award Winners
The Land Development Agency: Laying the foundations of a better future
Reshaping Surveying: Global collaboration in AI
Towards a sustainable real estate sector: The New EU Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD)
Dachu, the Nazis and Merrion Square
Commercial real estate finance review and outlook
A global standard: Supporting members as they move to the International Cost Management Standard
Finding balance: Eithne Carolan shares about her work as a Project Surveyor
The last word: The power of soil stabilisation
Members are invited to contact Audrey at the SCSI at [email protected] to write for upcoming editions of the Surveyors Journal.
The SCSI Cost of New Housing Delivery Report provides real figures on the average delivery costs for three bedroom semi-detached houses constructed in the private sector. The report provides a breakdown of all costs, affordability and viability analyses and key recommendations for policymakers.
Key findings from the Report
The average cost of delivering a new 3-bed semi in Ireland ranges from €354K in the Northwest to €461K in the Greater Dublin Area
Costs in the GDA have increased on average by 24% or €90K since the last report over three years ago and by 39% since the first report in 2016
Nationally, the average cost of delivering a 3-bed semi is €397K
Excluding Dublin, the average cost across the rest of Ireland is €386K
As a national average, hard costs which include materials and house building costs make up 53% of overall delivery costs
Soft costs – land, margin, levies, finance costs, VAT, etc – make up 47%
The report shows that the combined minimum salary levels required to purchase a new 3 bed semi in the Greater Dublin area is €127K, on average
The corresponding figure in the Northwest is €85K
Higher energy, fuel and building material prices are driving hard cost increases
Soft cost increases are due to land costs, higher finance costs due to interest rate increases and uplift in professional fees
The SCSI publishes ‘The Real Cost of New Housing Delivery 2023’
Report’s Main Findings:
The average cost of delivering a new 3-bed semi in Ireland ranges from €354K in the Northwest to €461K in the Greater Dublin Area
Costs in the GDA have increased on average by 24% or €90K since the last report over three years ago and by 39% since the first report in 2016
Nationally, the average cost of delivering a 3-bed semi is €397K
Excluding Dublin, the average cost across the rest of Ireland is €386K
As a national average, hard costs which include materials and house building costs make up 53% of overall delivery costs
Soft costs – land, margin, levies, finance costs, VAT, etc – make up 47%
The report shows that the combined minimum salary levels required to purchase a new 3 bed semi in the Greater Dublin area is €127K, on average
The corresponding figure in the Northwest is €85K
Higher energy, fuel and building material prices are driving hard cost increases
Soft cost increases are due to land costs, higher finance costs due to interest rate increases and uplift in professional fees
Thursday, 7th December 2023. A major new report has found that the average cost of delivering a new three-bedroom semi-detached house in a multi-unit scheme in Ireland ranges from €354,000 in the Northwest to €461,000 in the Greater Dublin Area.
The report, which has been published by the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI) found the national average cost of delivering this house type across seven regions by the private sector is €397,000, while the cost is €386,000 when the Dublin region is excluded.
The SCSI’s ‘The Real Cost of New Housing Delivery 2023’ report, which is being launched at the SCSI’s national conference in Croke Park today (Thursday Dec 7th) says the average cost of delivering a 3-bed-semi-detached home in the Greater Dublin Area (GDA) has increased by over €90,000 to €461,000 over the last three and a half years.
This is an average increase of 24% on the €371,000 it cost to build the same house in 2020 and an average increase of 39% since the SCSI published the first edition of this report in 2016 when the cost of building an average 3-bed-semi was €330,500.*
According to the report, the increase over the last three years in the GDA has been largely driven by a rise in ‘hard costs’ – bricks and mortar – up 27% or €49K on average while ‘soft costs’ – land, development levies, fees, vat, margin – increased by 21% or €41K.
Chartered Quantity Surveyor Micheál Mahon, one of the report’s authors, said the impact of Covid and the conflict in Ukraine have been the main contributors to the increase in ‘hard costs’ over the past two years.
“‘Hard costs’, which includes house building costs, siteworks, and site development, ranged from just over €198,000 in the Northwest region to just over €228,000 in the GDA, representing approximately a 15% differential.
“The main hard cost drivers have been energy, fuel, and shipping costs. The cost of various building materials, particularly concrete, insulation, electrical and plumbing products, steel reinforcement, and timber products, also increased dramatically. Nationally, ‘hard costs’ now comprise 53% of the total costs of overall delivery, while ‘soft costs’ make up the remaining 47%. However, in the GDA, this balance shifts to 49% ‘hard costs’ and 51% ‘soft costs’. While cost inflation has increased very significantly in recent years, recent SCSI surveys indicate prices are levelling off.
“’Soft costs’ range from approximately €156,000 in the Northwest region to just over €233,000 in the GDA. The primary soft cost drivers have been land costs, financing due to higher interest rates, levies and an uplift in the cost of professional fees. On a national basis, land and acquisition costs (per unit) equate to 13% of overall delivery costs on average.”
Table 1 Breakdown of the costs in delivering a new 3 bed-semi.
Viability
Using average market value data of new three-bedroom semi-detached properties across the various regions, the report assessed the financial viability of new home building in different parts of the country. Financial viability is determined by subtracting market value from overall delivery costs.
The research shows that financial viability, on average, is most challenged in areas of lower market values. The region where this challenge is greatest is in the Midlands region, where the average viability gap is €52K, followed by the Cork region, €50K and then the Northeast region, €45K. The two areas where the construction of a new 3-bed-semis is most viable on average is Galway and the Greater Dublin Area.
Affordability
In the report, the SCSI also examined affordability from the perspective of a first-time buyer with an average combined salary of €95K taking out a mortgage with the support of the Help to Buy scheme. This analysis showed that the Midlands and the Northwest are the most affordable regions for purchasing a new home using averaged market value data. The most unaffordable regions to the average first-time buyer are the GDA region, Galway region and the Cork region. The combined minimum salary levels required to purchase a new 3-bed-semi-detached house in the GDA ranges from, on average, €127K in the GDA and €115K in Galway to €85K and €87K in the Northwest and Midlands, respectively.
However, Mr Mahon said the SCSI’s analysis showed that Government supports aimed at addressing viability and affordability are making a noticeable impact.
Recommendations
The President of the SCSI, Enda Mc Guane, said that the report recommends that more needed to be done to support Modern Methods of Construction, pause future increases to connection charges and levies, as well as ensure the planning process is fit for purpose to de-risk development and bring down cost, which potential homeowners ultimately pay.
“While there has been a significant increase in the supply of new housing towards current ‘Housing for All’, it is important that we update those targets considering Ireland’s population increases. ‘Housing for All’ targets were based on the 2016 census, and the population has grown by 8%. Therefore, targets need an immediate revision based on the most up-to-date census figures.”
“When setting and committing to new targets, we would also urge the Government to establish new targets for the number of units delivered by off-site construction. This will facilitate a more efficient and sustainable use of resources through the rollout of Modern Methods of Construction.”
“Increasingly, we are seeing the viability of developments that receive planning permission impacted by design or density requirement conditions. We believe financial viability should be required within the planning permission process, especially concerning planning conditions imposed as parts of grants. The SCSI welcomes proposals to increase densities within new housing estates in the draft Sustainable and Compact Settlements Guidelines to help make suburban sites more viable by reducing the requirement for expensive apartment buildings in such estates.”
“On the cost side, we would like to see the continued pausing of development levies made a long-term policy while improvements must be made to the utility connection process to reduce costly and time-consuming delays.”
“The affordability scenarios included in this report show the First-time buyer challenges in certain locations. The SCSI believes the Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage should review the First Homes Scheme purchase price ceilings to ensure the shared equity scheme is accessible to average market values for each county. The price ceilings should then be adjusted in line with construction inflation to avoid the ceilings becoming inaccessible in the future.”
*The first two editions of this report focused solely on the cost of delivering new 3-bed-semi-detached homes in the Greater Dublin Area.
Note
The SCSI undertook an extensive and detailed study of over 8,500 units in 80 development sites throughout the country, with development sizes ranging from small builds to larger developments. It should be noted that the costs quoted are for 3-bed-semi-detached homes of 114 sqm in privately built multi-unit schemes, not one offs or standalone houses. Comparisons should not be drawn between this report and other cost reports such as for the defective concrete block scheme or the rebuild calculator for insurance purposes. The data was received in 2023 and rebased to account for inflation that would have been accrued since the projects’ initial tender date. SCSI acknowledges the temporary waiver of development contributions and Uisce Eireann rebate on connection charges. For the purposes of the delivery costs within this report, those charges are included due to the temporary nature of the initiative.
Case Studies
The Affordability Challenge
Scenario one
A first-time buyer couple with a combined gross salary of €100,000 looking to buy a three-bedroom semi-detached home in Dublin for the average price of €534,643. Firstly, the Help-to-Buy scheme does not apply to this house sale as the purchase price exceeds the €500,000 ceiling. This couple will need to come up with the full €53,464 deposit without Help to Buy support. If this couple could only borrow the average 3.3 times their gross income (average Loan to Income borrowing), then they would need additional funds to buy the property. The property’s purchase price is also above the First Home Scheme price ceiling of €475,000, so the applicant is ineligible. This leaves a funding gap of €151,179. See appendix 2 in the report for a full breakdown on the scenario costs.
Scenario two
A first-time buyer couple with a combined gross salary of €100,000 looking to buy a three-bedroom semi-detached home in Cork County for a price of €375,000. If this couple successfully apply for the full €30,000 tax back via Help-to-Buy this could be utilised for their deposit. If this couple could only borrow the average x 3.3 times gross income (average LTI borrowing), they would need additional funds to buy the property. The funding gap is €7,500, and the First Home Scheme could provide this funding gap to conclude the purchase. See Appendix 2 in the report for a full breakdown on the scenario costs.
Read the latest edition of the Surveyors Journal to read ‘Empowering Construction’ featuring an interview with Dara Deering, CEO of Home Building Finance Ireland, ‘Opening up the profession’ the launch of a new Quantity Surveying appreitcieship, ‘Addressing defects’ on the apartment defects redress scheme and more.
Contents:
President’s message 4 Editorial 5 News 6 Empowering construction 12 Opening up the profession 15 Addressing defects 16 Measuring moisture 18 Property arbitration in the Courts Service 20 Weaving sustainability into valuations 22 Critical skills 26 True diligence 28 A voice for young surveyors 29 The last word 30
